U.S. 2016 Vehicles First to Fall Short of Fuel Economy Targets

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U.S. light vehicles from the 2016 model year up will be the first to fall short of federal fuel economy targets in more than a decade, according to a new projection from regulators. This could be the beginning of  a push by automakers to ease efficiency standards.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration forecasts that 2016 models will average 32.1 miles per gallon, below the target of 32.8. The agency forecasts another shortfall in model year 2017 of 31.8 miles per gallon compared to a projected target of 33.

The U.S. fleet has exceeded industry wide fuel economy targets every year since 2004.

The two-page report, dated Feb. 14 is based on preliminary data collected from automakers that the agency cautions hasn’t been verified.

While fleets are expected to have a shortfall in 2016, automakers have compliance credits built up over exceeding their targets over several years to cover any shortfalls.

Data shows that automakers have complied with the regulations thus far using less technology than once expected. That strategy is now facing headwinds.

Debatable goals

The fuel efficiency standards — overseen by NHTSA, the EPA and the state of California and toughened during the Obama administration — have led to protracted debates about their value and to complaints from automakers that they’re difficult to achieve. They also follow analyses by the EPA revealing automakers showing fuel economy gains despite booming truck sales.

Auto industry trade groups representing General Motors Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG on Feb. 21 formally asked EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to revoke the Obama administration’s decision to leave intact EPA rules to slash vehicle greenhouse gas emissions through 2025. Eighteen automakers separately petitioned President Donald Trump on Feb. 10 to reinstate a midterm evaluation of the EPA rules.

The Trump administration is expected to reopen a feasibility review of the EPA’s greenhouse gas standards for 2022-2025. Automakers have pressed to resume the review, which they argue was ended prematurely by the Obama administration.

Annual targets

NHTSA’s regulations require annual improvements in vehicle fuel economy and set targets for each automaker’s passenger-car and light-truck fleets based on vehicle size and the mix of cars and trucks sold each year. Car makers can use credits earned by selling fuel-sippers that over comply to cover shortfalls caused by less-efficient models.

Automakers say that’s getting tougher amid surging truck sales supported by cheap gasoline. U.S. passenger-car sales fell 13 percent during the first two months of the year, while light-truck sales rose 6.5 percent, according to the Automotive News Data Center.

Actual NHTSA fuel economy data for model year 2015 showed the fleet average rose to 32.2 miles per gallon from 31.7 in 2014, 0.6 miles per gallon better than the target. Automakers have over complied by 1 mpg or more in each year since 2011.

“We’re committed to improving fuel economy, however the numbers speak for themselves,” Wade Newton, a spokesman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers trade group, said of the 2015 figures. “This underscores the challenge of being evaluated based on what consumers buy rather than what automakers produce.”

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